Real Estate • October 31, 2024

Why Today’s Foreclosure Numbers Won’t Trigger a Crash

by Brad Fowler

With everything feeling more expensive these days, it’s natural to worry about how rising costs might impact the housing market. Many people are concerned that high prices and tighter budgets could cause more homeowners to fall behind on their mortgage payments, leading to a wave of foreclosures.

But before you start worrying about a housing market crash, here’s a look at what’s really happening. And the good news is: the latest foreclosure data shows there’s no wave on the horizon.

How Today’s Market Is Different from 2008

Let’s ease those fears by looking at the bigger picture. The graph below uses research from ATTOM, a property data provider, to show that the number of homeowners starting the foreclosure process is nowhere near what we saw coming out of 2008. Back then, there was a big spike in how many foreclosures were happening. Today, the number is much lower – it’s even dropped some in the latest report. There’s a big difference between what’s happening now, and what happened when the housing market crashed (see graph below):

Just in case you’re wondering why the number of foreclosure filings has ticked up slightly since 2020 and 2021, here’s what you need to know. During those years, there was a moratorium (shown in white) designed to help millions of homeowners avoid foreclosure in challenging times. That’s why the numbers for just a few years ago were so incredibly low. If you look further back, it’s clear overall foreclosure filings are down significantly.

And if you’re wondering: how are there fewer foreclosures today, even when the cost of living has gotten so pricey? Here’s your answer. One of the main reasons is that homeowners today have a lot more equity built up in their homes than they did back in 2008. As an article from Bankrate explains:

“In the years after the housing crash, millions of foreclosures flooded the housing market, depressing prices. That’s not the case now. Most homeowners have a comfortable equity cushion in their homes.”

This equity acts like a safety net and is allowing many homeowners to avoid going into foreclosure if they’re facing financial hardships. Even if someone is struggling to make their monthly payments, they may be able to sell their home and avoid foreclosure altogether. This is a far cry from the conditions during the crash when homeowners owed more on their mortgages than their homes were worth.

What’s Ahead for the Housing Market

It’s true that today’s higher cost of living across the board is a challenge for many people right now. But this doesn’t mean we’re heading for a surge in foreclosures.

The equity cushion that people have is helping to keep foreclosure filings low. Today’s homeowners have more options to avoid going into foreclosure.

Bottom Line

Yes, everyday costs for gas and food have gotten more expensive—but that doesn’t mean the housing market is on the brink of another foreclosure crisis. Data shows the market is far from a foreclosure wave. Homeowners today are in a much stronger financial position than they were during the 2008 crash, thanks to significant equity.

Let’s Talk Soon!

Seller Info • October 29, 2024

Why Your House Will Shine in Today’s Market

by Brad Fowler

Even though there are more homes available for sale than there were at this time last year, there are still more buyers than there are houses to choose from. So, know that if you’ve got moving on your mind, your house can really stand out.

There are several key reasons why there aren’t enough homes to go around and understanding them will help you see why the market is working in your favor if you’re ready to make a move.

What’s Causing the Shortage?

1. Underproduction of Homes: For years, the industry hasn’t built enough homes to keep up with demand. As Zillow explains:

“In 2022, 1.4 million homes were built — at the time, the best year for home construction since the early stages of the Great Recession. However, the number of U.S. families increased by 1.8 million that year, meaning the country did not even build enough to make a place for the new families, let alone begin chipping away at the deficit that has hampered housing affordability for more than a decade.”

2. Rising Costs: Building materials, labor shortages, and supply chain disruptions caused by the pandemic have all made it harder and more expensive to build homes. This can either limit or stop new home construction in some areas.

3. Regional Imbalances: Some markets are more affected by the shortage of homes than others. Popular and more desirable areas have more people moving in faster than new homes can be built. The number of new building permits issued doesn’t always keep pace with job growth in these regions, and that leads to even tighter markets and higher prices.

How Big Is the Problem?

According to estimates from Real Estate News, the U.S. is facing a housing shortfall of roughly 3.3 million homes, based on an average of several expert insights (see graph below):

This shows there’s a significant number of homes that need to be built just to meet current demand from buyers. But what about future demand?

According to John Burns Research and Consulting (JBREC), over the next 10 years, the U.S. will need about 18 million new homes to meet projected demand, including homes for new households, second homes, and replacements for aging or unusable homes.

So, even though more homes are on the market compared to last year, there still aren’t enough of them to go around. This is where you can really win if you’re ready to sell your house.

What You Need To Remember

If you’re thinking about selling, the shortage of homes for sale means your house is likely to get some serious attention from buyers. It’ll take years to climb out of this inventory deficit, and the market is still very tight. So, when buyers are competing for relatively few homes like they are right now, that creates more interest in the houses that are on the market, putting upward pressure on prices and ultimately working in your favor.

And since every market is different, it’s important to work with a real estate agent who understands local trends. They can help you price your house right and create a strategy to attract the right buyers.

Bottom Line

While there are more homes for sale than there were at this time last year, there’s still a shortage overall. And this puts you in the driver’s seat as a seller. Let’s connect so you have someone who can help you take advantage of today’s market.

Uncategorized • September 23, 2024

Is Your House Priced Too High?

by Brad Fowler

Every seller wants to get their house sold quickly, for as much money as they can, with as few headaches as possible. And chances are, you’re no different.

But did you know one of the biggest things that could jeopardize your success is the asking price for your home? Pricing your house correctly is one of the most crucial steps in the selling process.

So, how do you know if you’re missing the mark? Here are four signs your high asking price might be turning potential buyers away—and why leaning on your real estate agent is the best way to course correct.

1. You’re Not Getting Many Showings or Offers

One of the most obvious signs your house may be overpriced is a lack of showings. If it’s been on the market for several weeks and only a few buyers have come to see it—or worse, you haven’t gotten any offers—it could be a clear indication the price isn’t matching up with what buyers expect. Because buyers who have been looking for a while can easily spot (and write off) a home that seems overpriced.

Your real estate agent will coach you through this, so lean on their experience for what you may want to try to bring more buyers in, including considering a price cut.

2. Buyers Have Consistent Negative Feedback after Showings

And if after the showings you do have, comments from the potential buyers aren’t great, you may need to course correct. Feedback from showings is an important part of understanding how buyers see your house. If they consistently say it’s overpriced compared to other homes they’ve seen, it’s time to reconsider your pricing strategy.

Your agent will gather and analyze this feedback for you, so you can look at how your house stacks up in the market. They can also suggest specific improvements or staging changes to better justify your asking price, or recommend one that aligns with today’s buyer expectations. As the National Association of Realtors (NAR) explains:

“Based on all the data gathered, agents may make adjustments to the initial price recommendation. This could involve adjusting for market conditions, property uniqueness, or other factors that may impact the property’s value.”

3. It’s Been on the Market for Too Long

And that lack of interest is ultimately going to lead to it sitting on the market without any serious bites. The longer it lingers, the more likely it is to raise red flags for buyers, who may wonder if something is wrong with it. Especially in today’s market with growing inventory, a long listing period means your house is stale – and that makes it even harder to sell.

Your real estate agent will be able to give you perspective on how quickly other homes in your area are selling and walk you through what’s working for other sellers. That way you can decide together if there’s something you want to do differently. As a Bankrate article says:

“Check with your agent about the average number of days homes spend on the market in your area. If your listing has been up significantly longer than average, that may be a sign to reduce the price.”

4. Your Neighbor’s House Sold Without an Issue

And here’s the last one to watch out for. If similar homes in your area are selling faster than yours, it’s a clear sign that something is off. This could be due to things like a lack of upgrades, outdated features, or a less desirable location. Or, it may be priced too high.

Your agent will keep you up to date on your competition and what changes, if any, you need to make your home more competitive. They’ll offer advice on small updates that could increase your home’s appeal or how to adjust your strategy to reflect the reality of the market today.

Bottom Line

Pricing a home correctly is both an art and a science. It requires a deep understanding of the market and buyer psychology. And when the price isn’t drawing in buyers, there’s no better resource than your agent on what you may want to do next.
Let’s Talk Soon!

Buyer Info • Seller Info • September 16, 2024

What To Know About Closing Costs

by Brad Fowler

Now that you’ve decided to buy a home and are ready to make it happen, it’s a good idea to plan ahead for the costs that are a typical part of the homebuying process. And while your down payment is probably the number one expense on your mind, don’t forget about closing costs. Here’s what you need to know.

What Are Closing Costs?

Simply put, your closing costs are the additional fees and payments you have to make at closing. And while they’ll vary based on the price of the home and how it’s being financed, every buyer has these, so they shouldn’t be a surprise. It’s just that some people forget to budget for them. According to Freddie Mac, this part of the homebuying process typically includes:

Application fees
Credit report fees
Loan origination fees
Appraisal fees
Home inspection fees
Title insurance
Homeowners insurance
Survey fees
Attorney fees

Some of these are one-time expenses that are baked into your closing costs. Others, like homeowners’ insurance, are initial installment payments for ongoing responsibilities you’ll have once you take possession of the home.

How Much Are Closing Costs?

The same Freddie Mac article goes on to say:

“Closing costs vary greatly depending on your location and the price of your home. Typically, you should be prepared to pay between 2% and 5% of the home purchase price in closing fees.”

With that in mind, here’s how you can get an idea of what you’ll need to budget. Let’s say you find a home you want to purchase at today’s median price of $422,600. Based on the 2-5% Freddie Mac estimate, your closing fees could be between roughly $8,452 and $21,130.

But keep in mind, if you’re in the market for a home above or below this price range, your numbers will be higher or lower.

Tips To Reduce Your Closing Costs

If you’re wondering if there’s any way to inch that down a little bit, NerdWallet lists a few things that could help:

Negotiate with the Seller: Some sellers are willing to cover part or all of these expenses — especially since homes are staying on the market a bit longer now. Sellers may be more motivated to compromise, and you’ll find you have a bit more negotiation power. So don’t hesitate to ask them for concessions like paying for the home inspection or giving you a credit toward closing costs.
Shop Around for Home Insurance: Since rising home insurance is a challenge in many areas of the country right now, take the time to get a clear picture of all your options. Each insurance company offers their own policies and coverage, so get multiple quotes and see how they compare. Choosing a policy that provides reliable coverage at a competitive rate can make a difference.
Look into Closing Cost Assistance: Just like there are programs out there to help with your down payment, options exist to get support with closing costs too. While they’ll vary by area, there are programs for various income levels, certain professions, and specific towns or neighborhoods too. If you want to learn more, Experian says:

“Your real estate professional should be able to steer you toward applicable programs, and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) maintains a helpful resource for finding homebuying assistance programs in every state.”

Bottom Line

Planning for the fees and payments you’ll need to cover when you’re closing on your home is important – and it doesn’t have to be a big surprise. With the right experts on your side, you can make sure you’re prepared. Let’s connect so you have someone you can go to for more tips and advice. Let’s Talk Soon!

Real Estate • August 29, 2024

2025 Housing Market Forecasts: What To Expect

by Brad Fowler

Looking ahead to 2025, it’s important to know what experts are projecting for the housing market. And whether you’re thinking of buying or selling a home next year, having a clear picture of what they’re calling for can help you make the best possible decision for your homeownership plans.

Here’s an early look at the most recent projections on mortgage rates, home sales, and prices for 2025.

Mortgage Rates Are Projected To Come Down Slightly

Mortgage rates play a significant role in the housing market. The forecasts for 2025 from Fannie Mae, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), the National Association of Realtors (NAR), and Wells Fargo show an expected gradual decline in mortgage rates over the course of the next year (see chart below):

Mortgage rates are projected to come down because continued easing of inflation and a slight rise in unemployment rates are key signs of a strong but slowing economy. And many experts believe these signs will encourage the Federal Reserve to lower the Federal Funds Rate, which tends to lead to lower mortgage rates. As Morgan Stanley says:

“With the U.S. Federal Reserve widely expected to begin cutting its benchmark interest rate in 2024, mortgage rates could drop as well—at least slightly.”

Expect More Homes To Sell

The market will see an increase in both the supply of available homes on the market, as well as a rise in demand, as more buyers and sellers who have been sitting on the sidelines because of higher rates choose to make a move. That’s one big reason why experts are projecting an increase in home sales next year.

According to Fannie Mae, MBA, and NAR, total home sales are forecast to climb slightly, with an average of about 5.4 million homes expected to sell in 2025 (see graph below):

That would represent a modest uptick from the lower sales numbers in 2023 and 2024. For reference, about 4.8 million total homes were sold in 2023, and expectations are for around 4.5 million homes to sell this year.

While slightly lower mortgage rates are not expected to bring a flood of buyers and sellers back to the market, they certainly will get more people moving. That means more homes available for sale – and competition among buyers who want to purchase them.

Home Prices Will Go Up Moderately

More buyers ready to jump into the market will put continued upward pressure on prices. Take a look at the latest price forecasts from 10 of the most trusted sources in real estate (see graph below):

On average, experts forecast home prices will rise nationally by about 2.6% next year. But as you can see, there’s a range of opinions on how much prices will climb. Experts agree, however, that home prices will continue to increase moderately next year at a slower, more normal rate. But keep in mind, prices will always vary by local market.

Bottom Line

Understanding 2025 housing market forecasts can help you plan your next move. Whether you’re buying or selling, staying informed about these trends will ensure you make the best decision possible. Let’s connect to discuss how these forecasts could impact your plans.

Let’s Talk Soon!

Buyer Info • Real Estate • August 26, 2024

What Mortgage Rate Are You Waiting For?

by Brad Fowler

You won’t find anyone who’s going to argue that mortgage rates have had a big impact on housing affordability over the past couple of years. But there is hope on the horizon. Rates have actually started to come down. And, recently they hit the lowest point we’ve seen in 2024, according to Freddie Mac (see graph below):

And if you’re thinking about buying a home, that may leave you wondering: how much lower are they going to go? Here’s some information that can help you know what to expect.

Expert Projections for Mortgage Rates

Experts say the overall downward trend should continue as long as inflation and the economy keeps cooling. But as new reports come out on those key indicators, there’s going to be some volatility here and there.

What you need to remember is it’s not wise to let those blips distract you from the larger trend. Rates are still down roughly a full percentage point from the recent peak compared to May.

And the general consensus is that rates in the low 6s are possible in the months ahead, it just depends on what happens with the economy and what the Federal Reserve decides to do moving forward.

Most experts are already starting to revise their 2024 mortgage rate forecasts to be more optimistic that lower rates are ahead. For example, Realtor.com says:

“Mortgage rates have been revised slightly lower as signals from the economy suggest that it will be appropriate for the Fed to begin to cut its Federal Funds rate in 2024. Our yearly mortgage rate average forecast is down to 6.7%, and we revised our year-end forecast to 6.3% from 6.5%.”

Know Your Number for Mortgage Rates

So, what does this mean for you and your plans to move? If you’ve been holding out and waiting for rates to come down, know that it’s already happening. You just have to decide, based on the expert projections and your own budget, when you’ll be willing to jump back in. As Sam Khater, Chief Economist at Freddie Mac, says:

“The decline in mortgage rates does increase prospective homebuyers’ purchasing power and should begin to pique their interest in making a move.”

As a next step, ask yourself this: what number do I want to see rates hit before I’m ready to move?

Maybe it’s 6.25%. Maybe it’s 6.0%. Or maybe it’s once they hit 5.99%. The exact percentage where you feel comfortable kicking off your search again is personal. Once you have that number in mind, you don’t need to follow rates yourself and wait for it to become a reality.

Instead, connect with a local real estate professional. They’ll help you stay up to date on what’s happening and have a conversation about when to make your move. And once rates hit your target, they’ll be the first to let you know.

Bottom Line

If you’ve put your moving plans on hold because of higher mortgage rates, think about the number you want to see rates hit that would make you re-enter the market.

Once you have that number in mind, let’s connect so you have someone on your side to let you know when we get there.

Let’s Talk Soon!

Real Estate • August 6, 2024

Helpful Negotiation Tactics for Today’s Housing Market

by Brad Fowler

If you haven’t already heard, homebuyers are regaining some negotiating power in today’s market. And while that doesn’t make this a buyer’s market, it does mean buyers may be able to ask for a little more. So, sellers need to be ready for that possibility and know what they’re willing to negotiate.

Whether you’re looking to buy or sell a house, here’s a quick rundown of potential negotiations that may pop up during your transaction. That way, you’re prepared no matter which side of the deal you’re on.

What Can You Negotiate?

Most things in a home purchase are on the negotiation table. Here’s a list of just a few of those options, according to Kiplinger and LendingTree:

Sale Price: The most obvious is the price of the home. And that lever is being pulled more often today. Buyers don’t want to overpay when affordability is already so tight. And sellers who aren’t realistic about their asking price may have to consider adjusting their price.
Home Repairs: Based on the inspection, a buyer is within their rights to ask the seller to make reasonable repairs. If the seller doesn’t want to do that, they could offer to reduce the home price or cover some closing costs, so the buyer has the money to take them on themselves.
Fixtures: Buyers can also ask for appliances or furniture to convey when the house changes hands. Having the seller throw in the washer and dryer cuts down on expenses the buyer would have when moving in. As the seller, you could leave your existing ones behind to sweeten the deal for your buyer, and get yourself new ones for your next place.
Closing Costs: Closing costs typically run about 2-5% of the home’s purchase price. Buyers can ask the seller to pay for some or all of these expenses to offset the cash the buyer has to bring to the table.
Home Warranties: Buyers can also ask the seller to pay for a home warranty. This is great for buyers worried about the maintenance costs that may pop up after taking possession of the home. And since this concession usually isn’t terribly expensive for the seller, it can be a good option for both parties.
Closing Date: Buyers can ask for a faster or extended closing window based on their own timetable. The seller can also advocate for what they need based on their move to find the right compromise.

One thing is true whether you’re a buyer or a seller, and that’s how much your agent can help you throughout the process. Your agent is your go-to for any back-and-forth. They’ll handle the conversations and advocate for your best interests along the way. As Bankrate says:

“Agents have expert negotiating skills. Without one, you must negotiate the terms of the contract on your own.”

They may also be able to uncover what the buyer or seller is looking for in their discussions with the other agent. And that insight can be really valuable at the negotiation table.

Bottom Line

Buyers are regaining a bit of negotiation power in today’s market. Buyers, knowing what levers you can pull will help you feel confident and empowered going into your purchase. Sellers, having a heads up of what they may ask for gives you the chance to think through what you’ll be willing to offer.

Want to chat more about what to expect and the options you have? Let’s connect.

Why Today’s Foreclosure Numbers Won’t Trigger a Crash

How Today’s Market Is Different from 2008

What’s Ahead for the Housing Market

Bottom Line

Why Your House Will Shine in Today’s Market

What’s Causing the Shortage?

How Big Is the Problem?

What You Need To Remember

Bottom Line

Is Your House Priced Too High?

1. You’re Not Getting Many Showings or Offers

2. Buyers Have Consistent Negative Feedback after Showings

3. It’s Been on the Market for Too Long

4. Your Neighbor’s House Sold Without an Issue

Bottom Line

What To Know About Closing Costs

What Are Closing Costs?

How Much Are Closing Costs?

Tips To Reduce Your Closing Costs

Bottom Line

2025 Housing Market Forecasts: What To Expect

Mortgage Rates Are Projected To Come Down Slightly

Expect More Homes To Sell

Home Prices Will Go Up Moderately

Bottom Line

What Mortgage Rate Are You Waiting For?

Expert Projections for Mortgage Rates

Know Your Number for Mortgage Rates

Bottom Line

Helpful Negotiation Tactics for Today’s Housing Market

What Can You Negotiate?

Bottom Line

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